After hitting a new all-time high value of $69,000, the price of the world’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 threshold this month. Plan B is the creator of stock-to-flow (S2F), the bitcoin price model, and also a pseudonymous bitcoin analyst. While the analyst had correctly called the price of the pioneer cryptocurrency for the last three months, their forecast for the ‘worst-case scenario’ missed the mark in November. However, despite the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price, Plan B remains confident that the world’s top crypto will reach the $100,000 mark, as predicted.
Plan B is very well-respected amongst all bitcoiners and since October 2017, the analyst has garnered about 1.5 million followers on Twitter. The stock-to-flow model introduced by the analyst quantifies the scarcity of the commodity, which is bitcoin in this case, and then divides it by the flow i.e. yearly issuance. When it comes to predicting bitcoin prices, the analyst appears to have done a great job and only missed the mark this month. It had begun four months ago when Plan B tweeted in June about the ‘worst-case scenario forecast for 2021’. According to Plan B, the price of Bitcoin would be greater than 47K for August, 43K for September, 63K for October, 98K for November and 135K for December.
Three of the four monthly price predictions by Plan B came to fruition and he was also correct when he stated that $64,000 was not the top price. This month’s miss is the first time that the analyst’s Bitcoin price prediction has turned out to be so far off because it wasn’t anywhere close to $98,000. The analyst acknowledged that the prediction had missed its mark, as Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 threshold after the recent ATH of $69,000. On November 25th, Plan B said that the S2F model had not been affected despite the miss and Bitcoin was still on its way to the $100,000 mark.
The tweet was liked by more than 39,000 accounts and shared about 5,000 times. It is undoubtedly good that he forecasted three out of four predictions correctly and his followers appear to be curious about the price in December. The pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst tweeted again two days later about the relative strength index (RSI) of the crypto asset. He said that the 66 RSI was 10% below the ATH. The next day, the analyst said that asset appears to have better risk-adjusted returns than the others.
In fact, Plan B went as far as creating a poll on Twitter and asked if $69,000 was the top for this halving cycle of Bitcoin, or if people believe that Bitcoin’s price would go past the $69,000 ATH that was hit on November 10th. According to the statistics obtained from his poll, it shows that more than 70% people believe that Bitcoin will manage to surpass this mark, but others think that this is the maximum. Cryptocurrencies have rebounded once more, especially after the scare in the market because of the discovery of the new coronavirus variant called Omicron.
